Monday, June 16, 2008

"And there's no kneecap there, as you'll notice."

Ok, I know that you're all expecting me to talk about the Lakers' win over the Celtics yesterday in game 5 of the NBA Finals. Honestly, I'm just really busy right now and don't have time to really disect that game or even begin to MENTION that atrocious game four COLLAPSE!!! ... Even though I just mentioned it...

...Anyway, I just saw this news headline on NBA TV while taking a break from work: "Clippers G Shaun Livingston cleared for basketball activities. Are you kidding me?!?!?! In case you don't remember, about a year and a half ago, Livingston tried to become an overnight contortionist, and it didn't work out for him. This was just nasty, and I wouldn't watch it if you're easily nauseated!!! Ralph Lawler's reaction to it was priceless and really caught the emotion of the building, I thought, when he said "...Oh Dear... oh..." I was going to put the video on here, but you really shouldn't be subjected to that video (Or the inevitable montage of soccer injuries that will follow... and especially not that footage of Allan Ray's Eye) without proper warning.

Anyway, Congratulations to Shaun Livingston, who is a very nice kid and has worked hard just to get back to the point where he can put pressure on his leg, much less walk on it and do the unbelievable - play basketball t an NBA level again.

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Blogging the Finals - Game 1

I'm talking on the phone with my brother right now. He asked what I mean by blogging the game. This is where I watch the game and post on my blog intermittently while watching the game. You'll hear some of the little things involved with the game, the telecast, the people I'm watching the game with... pretty much whatever I'm doing while watching the game, If I find it interesting enough to tell somebody, I'll type it and you'll read about it.

6:02, they just finished the introductions and now ABC is showing a really cheesy intro graphic... actually, it's kind of cool. A virtual walk through the hallway and onto the court while seeing images from some of the past 65 NBA Champions.

6:04, Mike Breen (SP?) has a band-aid over his left eye. I can only imagine that Mark Jackson Punched him for stealing his lunch money.

...The Coaches' pre-game speeches really define the differences between their styles. While PJ is busy telling the team about how Boston likes to get off to fast starts, Doc is babbling about "tri-angulation"??? and trying not to look into the camera as he talks, kind of like people that real world cast members visit for the first time since they've been on the show. They know they're not supposed to look into the camera and they're supposed to act normal, but neither really happens.

6:20...OK, I like Derek Fisher. I like him a LOT!!! But let's do the math, shall we, Mark Jackson? We'll use a 10 point to negative 10 point scale. You take away Smush Parker, who is at best a 2, at worst, a negative 4 and add D-Fish, who is at worst a 3 and at best a 6. Take away Smush and add D-Fish you get between a +1 and a +8. But you take away Kwame Brown (-3 to -7) and add Pau Gasol (+6 to +8) and you get anywhere from a +9 to a +15. The Pau trade was definitely more important!

6:24...OK, Garnet just put the Celtics up 12-10 on a series of great post-up moves that ended up with a near dunk that ended up being a goal tend on Odom. But he went toward the basket. Twice now. I GUARANTEE that he won't do that in a close fourth quarter, especially in an elimination game. But not even tonight. Mark my words.


...OK, my bad. I haven't posted anything since halfway through the first quarter. The Lakers are about to lose now which of course makes my prediction incorrect. But I still believe that the Lakers can win in 6. It helps to have three straight in Los Angeles.

Singing off.

Finals Prediction

This was supposed to go after the Finals Analysis, but I need to get my prediction for the Finals out there before the finals begin. I'll continue the analysis later on, but if I don't get this prediction out there yet, I'll feel like it's not valid.

I Think the Lakers' best chance to win a game in Boston is Game 1. They will come out aggressively, Phil Jackson will do some things on defense that will confuse Doc Rivers, who won't properly counter it at half time and in the end, Kobe will be too much for Boston to handle so they'll win the first game.

In game two, I think Boston will come back with a "F-U, I'm not losing two straight at home" attitude and either Blow the Lakers out, or just win demonstratively.

When the Series switches back to LA, there's no way the Lakers (KOBE and Vujacic, especially) will allow themselves to be handled like there were in game 2. Lakers by at least 8 in Game 3. It's Tought to win three straight at home in the 2-3-2 format, so I'll give Boston game 4, with the Lakers taking game 5 and a 3-2 advantage with them back to Boston.

Once Boston is on the ropes 3-2, expect Rajon Rondo to try to do everything on his own. Lakers will wrap it up then.

Prediction: Lakers in six

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Finals Analysis Part V

Part I, II, III, IV


Ahh, my favorite position. The freaks, the bruisers, the seven-foot and uppers!!! The low-post scorers:


Center

Lakers: Pau Gasol
Pau Gasol is a little more than 7 feet tall. Let's call him 7'1". He is a bonafide low-post scorer who commands a double team against even the best of defenders (Tim Duncan, Marcus Camby) and can reliably shoot jump shots out to about 18 feet. Once again, he is a Lakers Big man with an excellent interior passing touch who doesn't mind giving it up. He's also long, quick on his feet and has an eye for the ball. He gets to rebounds that you think he shouldn't get to and tracks down the rare occasional pass from his teammates with ease, while always seeming to know exactly where the basket is in relation to his position and that of his defender(s). Lately, though, he has been missing a lot of contested layups and what Shaq calls "Chippy" shots around the basket. You get hit more in the Playoffs and the longer you stay in, the more you get hit. Gasol hasn't quite learned to adjust to that at this point. Hopefully he'll figure it out soon.

Celtics: Kendrick Perkins
Remember in 2004 when the Lakers had Gary Payton, Kobe Bryant, Karl Malone and Shaquille O'Neal, but then they had to put five people on the floor so Deavan George Started? Remember how Charles Barkely said that it wasn't impressive that George was shooting 52% on 3 pointers halfway through the season because "you could put George of The Jungle out there with those other four guys"? Remember that? Well, That's Kendrick Perkins to me. He's highly capable of doing his job - which is to defend, make open dunks/layups when asked and pull down rebounds when they come his direction. But it just isn't very impressive when standing next to Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and - yes - even Rajon Rondo. The things I just said Kendrick Perkins does, that's what he can do. There was the one game where he had 114 rebounds in the first quarter against Detroit, but his Nearly averaging a low double-double against Detroit was Very Impressive for him. At barely 6'10, he's not even the tallest member of their team and is actually shorter than all three members of the Lakers' front line of Radmonovic, Odom and Gasol. He's strong though, and if Jason Maxiell can guard Dwight Howard, he shouldn't just get absolutely abused in the post by Gasol. However, don't expect him to really bother Gasol's hook shots in the lane and don't be surprised when Gasol's baseline dropsteps yield positive results early and often. In my opinion, the best way to defend against Gasol would be to give him single coverage with Perkins on the catch and a quick double team in the post, but not until the dribble. It makes no Sense to double Gasol as soon as he gets the ball because he's a much better passer when he's not thinking about dribbling than after he puts the ball down and the Lakers are great cutters. Otherwise, they can try another cross-match where Garnett guards Gasol and Perkins guards Odom. Of course, that would have to be situational because there is no way in Heavean, Earth or Hell that Perkins will stay with Lamar if he steps out to the three point arc and decides to go around him.

Advantage: Lakers

Part I, II, III, IV

Finals Analysis Part IV

Part I, II, III, V


Ok, so this might be the most interesting matchup of the series. It's the only direct match up that involves two stars - at least by position, anyway.


Power Forward

Lakers: Lamar Odom

Star might be a little bit of a stretch for Lamar. He's got the skills to be in the All Star game every year, but doesn't quite have the mentality for it. Last season, people were talking about him as an All Star Reserve through the first couple months of the season, but then an extended injury kept him off of his first roster for the mid-season classic. Many people are perplexed about Odom because he's got skills to rival just about any big man in the history of the Game. At 6'10", with arms so long he once said that he didn't let them hang as a child because he was self conscious about it, he can defend at any position and plays an interesting role for Phil Jackson in the Triangle offense. Lamar plays point guard on at least 15 to 20 possessions per game. If you watch closely, you'll notice that in addition to when he rebounds the ball and immediately starts the fast break by rushing up the court, he is often placed at the top of the key and given the ball to start the half-court offense. But it's not just a quirk of the offense or a mere demonstration of versatility to give the guards some extra rest time on the bench - though that doesn't hurt. More on this in Part VI.

Odom does everything on the court very well, but doesn't do anything GREAT... Well, except for rebound! He seems to have Velcro on his hands at times. Also, his interior passing and passing out of double team does a great job of keeping the ball moving, which helps the Lakers create problems with their crisp ball moving. The ball always moves more when Odom is in the game and if John Wooden's 9 championships are any indication, having at least a 3:1 pass to shot attempt ratio helps win games.

Celtics: Kevin Garnett

You just can't say enough about this guy. I want so badly to root for him, just because he really does deserve to win at least once. He's SOO good defensively, Soo great on the low block offensively. He's selfish, unassuming, yet inspiring and intense. I know it sounds like I'm describing a politician, not a basketball player but maybe that's appropriate. When Kevin went to Boston, he completely rearranged the culture there and changed the course of at least 6 different players' careers. He is one of the best Power Forwards of all time and to compare Lamar Odom to him isn't even fair. It's like Comparing Superman to Batman. I mean, sure, Batman is great! He's a hero. If you need saving, you hope he's around figuring out how to do it. But if you had your choice when you're falling off the building, you'll go with Clark Kent 7 days out of 7.

Advantage: Celtics

Part I, II, III, V

Finals Analysis Part III

Part I, II, IV, V


After today's section, I have officially convinced myself that this will be a very tightly contested finals and one of the best series we've seen since Utah/Chicago '98.

Small Forward


Lakers: Vladimir Radmonovic

6’10, nearly 40% career three point accuracy. That pretty much sums him up. He won’t be accused of being a great defender, but as a 6’10 small forward, he has the size to bother his often-smaller counterparts. He has a great “Basketball IQ”, which is something that’s often just thrown around a lot (I’ll later use it to describe Luke Walton) but it really does explain a why some players with superior physical gifts make it in the NBA and others don’t (think Isaiah Rider Vs. John Stockton). I wouldn’t have said this about him just a year ago, but he really does understand what’s supposed to be going on in the game and he makes an effort to make it happen. His offensive basketball IQ is much higher than his defensive basketball IQ, which is one reason that he gets an abnormally large amount (almost 30%)of his rebounds on the offensive end.

He’s not very quick, but he is a capable ball handler when open or when someone is rushing at him to stop his deadly outside shot. Vlade’s best quality on the floor is his interior passing/post entry passing skills. These are under rated, but important factors to consider when doing a scouting report for him.


Celtics: Paul Pierce

OK, this is another one where the comparison is just not fair. At about 6’7, Paul Pierce is more of a big guard than a small forward. The Celtic’s best all-around Player, Paul Pierce is a greatly under-rated defender (though that perception is starting to change as people get an extended post-season view of him), an above average ball-handler, passer and shooter (he once was second in the league in 3 pointers made) a deceptive rebounder and knows how to take over the game offensively when he needs to. He can create a shot for himself or for anybody else on the team, and really play the point-forward role.

The thing that really strikes me here is that he’s an L.A. guy. Pierce Graduated from Inglewood High School and every time he comes back home, he puts on a show! He loves to play well against the team he grew up rooting for and when the Celtics play on the road in Los Angeles, it’s almost like a home game for him – you know, away from the court. He can get home cooking when he wants it, has plenty of friends around if he needs them; he knows the area and doesn’t have to stay in a hotel. This can make his game flow much nicer than being on the road in an unfamiliar setting and can spell trouble for the Lakers. What’s worse, there is no earthly way that Vladimir Radmonovic should be able to even dream about guarding him. Vladimir should be having nightmares right now just imagining what Pierce is going to do to him. Like I said before, this will be one of many cross match ups in this series. Pierce creates problems for the Lakers that are very similar to the ones Kobe Creates for the Celtics. Kobe, though, should do a much better job on Pierce when they are matched against each other. Of course, then the Lakers will have to worry about Ray Allen Running Rough Shod around Vlade for 6 games. The Lakers might be better served to forgo Radmonovic’s positives on Offense and use a lineup of Kobe and Trevor Ariza to slow down the Celtic’s Wing Duo. If The “3”s stay on each other, expect to hear Pierce’s name a lot when Marv Albert starts talking about “One of the ALL time GREAT Finals Performances, we’ve EVER SEEN!!!”

Advantage: Celtics

Part I, II, IV, V

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Finals Analysis Part II

Part I, III, IV, V

Part I gave me some amount of pause when deciding how the Point Guard match up would turn out. But There is no danger of that happening in Part II. Without further delay,

Shooting Guard

Celtics: Ray Allen

As long as Doc Rivers doesn't suddenly decide that Up is Down and Right is Wrong, Ray Allen will still be the Starting Shooting Guard when the Two teams Face off in the Finals, despite his struggles recently. Jesus Shuttlesworth (If you haven't seen He Got Game, it's your own fault for not getting the reference, not mine), by any account is a very good player. He's not the greatest defensive player, but he isn't a liability to the point where he needs to be taken out of games in big moments. When he entered the league out of Uconn, he was mostly a jump shooter, like a smaller Glen Rice or a slower Reggie Miller. But over the years, he's added a deceptively quick first step, an underrated crossover and he has really always been a good passer. In fact, there is nothing that you can really say he does poorly. Years of having a meticulously OCD-driven work-out regimen helps. True, he has been shooting poorly in the playoffs this year, but ask Phil Jackson if that means he wants to leave Ray Allen open on the wing for even a millisecond. Shuttlesworth has one of the quickest, most accurate releases on his jump shot the league has ever seen and he's one of the two or three guys in the league who wouldn't even flinch in a Clutch-Free-Throw-Shooting contest with Kobe Bryant. at around 90% for his CAREER, Allen is also one of the best Free throw shooters the League has ever seen.


Lakers: Kobe Bryant

That being Said, Ray Allen is going to get DESTROYED in this series. Kobe Bryant has been the best all around player in the game since at least 2000 (His first year on the All-Defensive Team). This year he is the League's MVP because he was one of the best defenders all year long, he's always been able to score literally on ANYBODY and saying that he is perennially on the NBA's All Defensive team is truly understating his ability and his commitment on the Defensive end. Kobe's offense is faster and stronger than Allen's Defense and Kobe's Defense is Faster and Stronger than Allen's offense. However, we all know that No NBA Team is going to try to cover Kobe 1 on 1 with Ray Allen, who - no offense intended either way - couldn't stay with Joe Johnson defensively. There will be a LOT of cross matches in this series where Pierce will be guarding Bryant. That will help quite a bit because Pierce is a significant upgrade over Allen (who, again, is not THAT bad). Of course, this means that Allen will be guarding a much bigger player (Luke Walton, Trevor Ariza, Vladimir Radmonovic or even Lamar Odom if Phil gets Creative) and if those small forwards decide to take Allen into the post, then Garnett is going to need to Earn that DPOY Trophy the hard way, but playing a mid-zone for Allen's backup and recovering to his man in the post or on cuts. This is the Single Biggest match up problem that the Celtics will face and it poses almost NO problems for the Lakers because of Kobe's abilities on both ends of the court.

Advantage: Lakers... And it isn't even close (shakes head in pity for Ray Allen).

editor's note: One interesting thing to watch for in this series will be the ongoing "Rivalry" - if you can call it that - between Kobe and Allen. They say that it's nothing, but you'll notice that They go at each other harder than most people. If the fire in this feud really has been doused as they claim, expect it to be rekindled in this series.

Part I, III, IV, V

Monday, June 2, 2008

Finals Analysis

Part II, III, IV, V


OK, here is my Full Finals Analysis. I'll break down the two teams in this year's NBA Finals by position, including each starter, the bench as a whole, the coaching and even the crowds.

Let's Start with...

The STARTERS!!!

POINT GAURD

Lakers: Derek Fisher
at 6'1", 185 pounds, Derek is built like a brick wall. He's about as broad in the shoulders as he is tall. Derek is an excellent three point shooter (I believe he still holds the finals record for three point percentage) and has been shooting particularly well in the playoffs as various defensive schemes to stop the other players on the team have given him plenty of wide open shots. For a point guard, he doesn't get up an down the floor very quickly, but fast break basketball has never really been his M.O. Still, at 32, he's not bad going 94 feet. But his real strength is in the half court - both on offense AND defense.

He's great at getting the offense started and calling out defenses. He's not very flashy with his passes or his ball handling. The best way to describe him is "Stable", which is good for the point guard on a very young team. His adept post-entry passes (an underated skill) will get Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, Kobe Bryant and even Luke Walton the ball in exactly the right spots on the floor. Then, on the other end of the court, he stays in front of his man and fights around EVERY screen. When playing off the ball, he's one of the best in the League at stepping in and taking a charge. Expect to see him step in for a charge at least twice per game - whether it gets called or not.

Celtics: Rajon Rondo
Rondo is just about an all star waiting to happen. Sure, there was the story about him losing a three point shooting contest to an eighth grader last summer, but he's a smart player and has figured out how to play to his strengths. In particular, when teams routinely double and triple team off of him, he's learned to make hard cuts towards the basket and is becoming adept at making that little 4-8 foot floating jump shot in and around the lane, which is becoming an absolute necessity for star point guards nowadays. And he has the skills with the ball to get to the hoop at will against slower guards (ie Derek Fisher)He takes his cues from Kevin Garnett, so he's unselfish almost to a fault at times. However, when the game is on the line, the Celtics shouldn't have any qualms about putting the ball in his hands and trusting that he will make the right call.
Defensively, he's quick and active. He does have a tendency to lay on screens a bit, but his foot speed and length (at 6'1", with arms that hang down to his knees), he seems a few inches taller. Recently, he's been playing the best basketball of his young career, including that 14 assist, 4 steal, 1 turnover gem against the Pistons.

Rondo is going to give the Lakers fits when he's up against Derek Fisher because Derek shouldn't be able to keep up with him. Then again, he shouldn't have been able to keep up with Tony Parker or Deron Williams, either. Rondo should give Fisher problems defensively, but they'll probably have him doubling, so Number 2 should continue to get open shots. Honestly, this matchup is just about a wash, but since Derek has the Experience (10 years in the NBA, 3 time champion, 2 time starter for a championship team), I'll give the Lakers a slight advantage here. But it's close.

Advantage: Lakers

editor's note: After thinking it over for the night, I think that this matchup will be a wash. It will be youth and athleticism versus experience and skill, instinct vs. insight. It will be frustrating for both sides to watch. No advantage gained.

Part II, III, IV, V